Again in June final 12 months, in an interview The Kilowatts, Elon mentioned his plans for Twitter, which was nicely earlier than he really took possession of the platform.

In that interview, Musk outlined his plans for a paywall bypass system, which might allow Twitter customers to pay for one-off articles in-app, versus subscribing to varied publications.

That’s now changing into a actuality, with Musk saying over the weekend that Twitter will quickly allow publications to cost Twitter customers for entry per article in-stream.

Which sounds fascinating, proper? As Musk says, perhaps that’ll present one other method for publications to generate income from people who find themselves by no means going to develop into subscribers, however may pay for an article right here or there.

Sounds fascinating in idea, proper?

Besides, this very mannequin has already been tried, and deserted, many instances, by varied publications and platforms as they search new monetization alternatives.

The important thing drawback? By providing smaller, one-off funds for single article entry, that then de-values subscriptions, that are way more invaluable for media entities. Certain, not everyone’s going to develop into a subscriber, however a portion of their viewers will, and if these few not must subscribe to entry content material, that then signifies that your per-article mannequin must ship much more, with a view to substitute that misplaced subscription income.

Each previous experiment has discovered that this finally ends up resulting in a internet loss for publishers versus the subscription system, which is why, strive as many have, this technique doesn’t work, and can fail once more on Twitter.

Although there was one firm that supplied an analogous program, which really did ship advantages for publishers and readers alike – and it’s owned by Twitter.

Twitter acquired Scroll again in 2021, which supplied a method for customers to pay a month-to-month subscription price that may then be re-shared with publishers whose content material you engaged with, enabling customers to learn extra articles on-line, without having particular person subscriptions to every supplier.

Scroll was primarily targeted on offering an ad-free studying expertise, versus bypassing paywalls, as such. However the mannequin may primarily operate in that method as nicely, and Twitter had varied employees from Scroll on its group when Elon took over on the app.

However he fired them, together with 1000’s of different inside specialists who knew the way to make one thing like this work.

However, nonetheless, Elon’s assured that he is aware of greatest anyway, which is why he’s now pushing ahead with one other mission that seemingly received’t work, in defiance of all standard knowledge and expertise.

Which, for good or unhealthy, is the Elon Musk method.  

Again in November, in his first weeks of settling into his new position as chief of Twitter, Musk outlined his key areas of focus for the platform, and the initiatives that he had in thoughts to reform the Twitter expertise.

A type of first plans was his $8 verification program, which, on the time, many individuals stated wouldn’t work. And it hasn’t. Regardless of all of Musk’s varied efforts to push Twitter Blue take-up, fewer than 800k customers – or 0.32% of Twitter’s general person base – have signed as much as Twitter Blue to date, whereas its $1,000 per thirty days Verification for Organizations program additionally doesn’t look like faring significantly better.

However Elon’s sticking with them. Regardless of the poor take-up, which means that neither program is prone to attain his authentic objectives, Elon’s pushing forward, and dealing on new methods to maximise subscription income, nevertheless he can.

Primarily, Musk determined early on that this was the easiest way to go, and he’s going to maintain pushing, until it’s both clearly a failure, or it’s not.

All through his profession, this has really been certainly one of Elon’s strengths, having the self-belief and fortitude to go towards standard knowledge, and push by way of with initiatives that others would seemingly suggest towards. He’s seen success with this method in his different corporations – when Tesla was informed that batteries had been just too costly to provide, which was the accepted knowledge primarily based on previous experiments, Musk tasked the Tesla group to interrupt down the method into particular steps, then discover the place value efficiencies might be gained.

And he was proper. Tesla was finally capable of produce cheaper batteries, a key stumbling block for EVs previously, and it’s this method, which Musk himself referred to as ‘first ideas’ considering, that he takes into each mission, breaking down every course of to its core components in an effort to seek out the best methods to maximise efficiency.

It is smart, to a point. However in social media apps, you’re not coping with binary elements, you’re coping with actual individuals, and behavioral shifts are a lot more durable to affect than scientific optimizations.

That’s why this new mission seemingly received’t work, the identical as Twitter Blue, the identical as Neighborhood Notes at scale – the identical as each mission that Elon has applied to date as ‘options’ to long-standing issues on the app.

At some scale, they’ll ship, and on some fronts, they’ll look to be working. However on a broader foundation, amongst a whole lot of tens of millions of customers, in numerous areas, and all utilizing the app in numerous methods, none of those initiatives is definitely going to unravel the challenges that Musk and Co. recommend.

In fact, there may be an irony right here, in that I’m writing an article about how this received’t work, whereas highlighting that Elon has been capable of ship previously by countering naysayers like me. In that sense, I do additionally need to additionally settle for that perhaps I’m mistaken, and perhaps, Musk sees one thing that I don’t, and he can really make these shifts occur. However as famous, coping with individuals, and the way they work together, is a really totally different proposition, which isn’t as straightforward to unravel for as mechanical science.

However Elon’s going to push forward. As a result of that’s what he does.

It appears to me that this has develop into a key flaw in his Twitter method, with Elon deciding way back on the easiest way ahead for the app, which he’s now dedicated himself to, regardless of the state of affairs altering over time, and the outcomes exhibiting that they’re merely not sticking. Musk’s self-assuredness has additionally meant that he’s sacked and/or alienated many specialists with information that may assist, like the previous leaders from Scroll who perceive the complexities of on-line content material monetization higher than anybody.

Elon has mainly dismissed all outdoors opinion, and is pushing ahead with tasks which were examined and failed many instances earlier than.

Perhaps, although, the result shall be totally different this time. However then once more, in all probability not.