It seems like Groundhog Day as soon as once more for TikTok within the U.S., with the platform’s fourth prolonged deadline to be bought off to a U.S.-based accomplice, or face expulsion from the area, set to run out on December sixteenth.

And regardless of the White Home approving a TikTok sell-off deal, and assuring People that the app would proceed to be in operation, with this final extension merely a formality to finalize the main points of the sale, there has nonetheless been no affirmation of any sale of TikTok to a U.S. entity, with the Chinese language authorities refusing to log out on any deal at this stage.

Which implies that, as soon as once more, People will face the prospect of TikTok going darkish in a few weeks. Or President Trump will simply prolong the deadline as soon as once more, below the promise of a pending deal.

Which can or might not be shut, as a result of primarily based on what we’ve heard from U.S. negotiators, they actually do not know how the Chinese language authorities goes to rule on a sell-off.

Again in October, after a gathering with Chinese language commerce officers in Kuala Lumpur, inside which the U.S. delegation was assured of securing closing sign-off on a U.S. TikTok sale, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent mentioned that:

“We finalized the TikTok settlement when it comes to getting Chinese language approval, and I might anticipate that might go ahead within the coming weeks and months, and we’ll lastly see a decision to that.”

But, that approval has by no means materialized, with Chinese language state media reporting that officers had agreed to “appropriately handle points associated to TikTok,” whereas additionally noting that numerous different components of U.S.-China commerce would must be resolved as a part of broader negotiations.

So whereas Chinese language officers have been open to dialogue, there’s nothing to counsel that they’re going to approve the sell-off of a Chinese language firm to a U.S. proprietor, not less than not with out satisfactory commerce compensation in return.

What that could be, we don’t know, although some stories have indicated that the CCP is looking for President Trump’s assist of China’s possession declare over Taiwan, one thing that the U.S. has lengthy opposed, in assist of Taiwan’s independence. Extra not too long ago, Chinese language officers have expressed issues about America’s newest commerce offers with Malaysia and Cambodia, which additionally embody language “that encourages the nations to align with Washington on nationwide safety points, together with export controls, funding screening and sanctions.”

Which Chinese language officers have lengthy warned in opposition to, and it does appear to be not less than a few of these points may very well be constructed into any TikTok sell-off plan, if the U.S. is to win CCP approval.

Which we don’t know that it ever will, however again in October, when President Trump held a media occasion to announce that he’d saved TikTok, he definitely appeared assured {that a} deal was only a matter of time.

How a lot time, I assume, is the actual query.

It could definitely be a PR win for Trump, who may tout that he’s saved the app to spice up his attraction with younger voters, and the CCP probably is aware of how precious it’s for the President on this respect. Which may very well be why they’re holding out, on the lookout for extra to be added into the deal to safe its sign-off on the association.

Both method, put together for the TikTok sale discussions to ramp up as soon as once more, as we’ve got solely two weeks until the app is both bought off or banned within the U.S., or Trump points yet one more government order to maintain issues as they’re.