At present marks a yr since Musk took possession of Twitter, which he’s since re-branded to X, as a part of his long-held imaginative and prescient to create a payments-centered “all the pieces app”, modeled on Chinese language messaging platforms like WeChat, which have turn into important connection instruments for billions of customers.

Musk believes that X can turn into the identical, however once more, proper now, it’s not completely clear how X is creating in direction of that division.

Based mostly on insights shared by X CEO Linda Yaccarino, all the pieces’s going nicely, along with her newest weblog publish claiming that:

• X has over 500 million month-to-month lively customers
• X customers spend 7.8 billion lively minutes on X per day
• The typical person spends greater than 32 minutes per day within the app
• Round 1.5 million new accounts are being created day-after-day
• All main advert businesses have reversed their pause steerage towards promoting on X
• 90 of X’s prime 100 advert spenders from a yr in the past have now resumed campaigns

However as famous, many of those stats are refuted by third-party evaluation, or perhaps a fundamental dig into X’s personal reported numbers.

On lively customers, in accordance with knowledge from SimilarWeb (revealed this week by Axios), X’s month-to-month lively person rely has truly fallen by 14.8% globally, and by 17.8% within the U.S. year-over-year, for the month of September.

Final September, X had round 238 million each day lively customers, which possible implies that X was serving round 439 million month-to-month actives, based mostly on common DAU to MAU variation throughout social apps. That might imply that, based mostly on SimilarWeb’s indicators, X would at present be seeing round 378 million month-to-month lively customers, not 500 million, as X claims.

Different third-party evaluation tells an analogous story. Knowledge from Apptopia means that X at present has round 223 million month-to-month actives, and 121 million each day customers, with the app seeing a drastic decline in each utilization and downloads because the rebrand to X in July.

However on the identical time, neither SimilarWeb nor Apptopia can entry to the complete knowledge insights, with solely X having full oversight. Although their figures are usually indicative, which appears to counsel that X in all probability doesn’t have 500 million month-to-month customers at this stage.

However we don’t know, as a result of X is now a personal firm, and as such, it’s not beholden to SEC guidelines round disclosure. So we solely have X’s phrase, and X says it’s 500 million.

Make of that what you’ll.

When it comes to common time spent within the app per day, X itself has reported that it at present has 253 million each day actives, which might imply that if customers are spending a cumulative 7.8 billion minutes per day within the app, as reported by Yaccarino, then the common time spent is definitely 30.8 minutes per person, not 32 minutes per day as Yaccarino claims.

If the common time spent per person is definitely 32 minutes per day, as X says, then that may imply that X is now serving 244 million each day actives, which might imply that it’s misplaced 7 million DAU since March.

And if that’s true, then these 1.5 million new account sign-ups that the app’s seeing are usually not sticking round, as a result of X must be including 45 million new customers each month at that price.

However it’s shedding each day actives? Doesn’t look like an important indicator of success.

X additionally claims that each one of its main advert companions are coming again, however Ebiquity, which works with 70 of the world’s prime 100 spending manufacturers, claims that solely two of its shoppers have resumed X advert spend. X has additionally began promoting advert stock by way of Google Adverts to fill slots, which would seem to counsel that if these manufacturers are returning, they’re spending quite a bit much less.

However once more, we don’t know, as a result of X is the one one with all the information, and the one technique of figuring out for certain how X goes will probably be its monetary efficiency. Which may even stay unclear, until Musk and Co. determine to report these figures.

And that may solely come when X is admittedly struggling, although it does appear considerably indicative of an issue when the banks that loaned Elon Musk $13 billion for his acquisition at the moment are anticipating a big loss, as they attempt to offload the debt.

Constancy, which itself owns a stake within the firm, has lower X’s valuation by two-thirds, which implies the platform would at present be value round $15 million, versus the $44 billion Musk paid for it.

So whereas X’s group is attempting to color a rosy image, each exterior evaluation suggests in any other case. And perhaps they’re all improper, however it does look like there’s one thing not fairly on the nostril in regards to the knowledge being shared.

On different parts, Yaccarino additionally says that every day, “150,000 new lengthy type posts are revealed, receiving greater than 3 billion impressions.”

Lengthy-form content material is a big departure from what Twitter had been, which hasn’t actually appeared like an important match, however perhaps there’s an viewers for it, based mostly on these figures. Although once more, the element is absent, with regard to what truly defines a long-form publish on this context (i.e. is that any publish that it’s important to faucet into to learn, or is it solely posts of a sure phrase rely?).

Yaccarino additionally says that the common X Premium subscriber spends 3 times longer on the platform than a non-subscriber. Which is zero shock in any respect, however that may additionally imply that this section could be skewing the common time spent numbers, on combination.

When it comes to coming options, Yaccarino has mentioned that full-screen, vertical video advertisements will quickly be displayed inside X’s new immersive playback mode, which is once you faucet by way of on a video and scroll as much as maintain seeing extra. Yaccarino says that 100 million folks now view video content material inside this devoted feed day-after-day, with Gen Z being essentially the most lively shoppers of this course of.

Lastly, Yaccarino says that its in-stream funds course of is in growth, with X being granted cash transmitter licenses in a number of U.S. states. As we’ve reported, X has been granted funds licenses in some states, however it nonetheless has a protracted technique to go in gaining full approval on this entrance.

I don’t know, it feels virtually too skeptical to query each certainly one of X’s claims, however once more, that is based mostly on exterior evaluation and reporting, at a broad scale, which contradicts Yaccarino’s numerous notes. Perhaps they’re all improper, perhaps X is definitely doing superior, and perhaps Threads, which is now as much as 100 million customers, is having no influence in any respect on X utilization.

However that appears most unlikely, when each different mode of study and perception is reporting the identical.

We’ll discover out, as X continues on its path.