At this time marks a 12 months since Musk took possession of Twitter, which he’s since re-branded to X, as a part of his long-held imaginative and prescient to create a payments-centered “all the pieces app”, modeled on Chinese language messaging platforms like WeChat, which have turn into important connection instruments for billions of customers.

Musk believes that X can turn into the identical, however once more, proper now, it’s not solely clear how X is growing in the direction of that division.

Primarily based on insights shared by X CEO Linda Yaccarino, all the pieces’s going properly, together with her newest weblog submit claiming that:

• X has over 500 million month-to-month lively customers
• X customers spend 7.8 billion lively minutes on X per day
• The typical person spends greater than 32 minutes per day within the app
• Round 1.5 million new accounts are being created day by day
• All main advert businesses have reversed their pause steerage towards promoting on X

However as famous, many of those stats are refuted by third-party evaluation, or perhaps a fundamental dig into X’s personal reported numbers.

On lively customers, in accordance with information from SimilarWeb (revealed this week by Axios), X’s month-to-month lively person rely has truly fallen by 14.8% globally, and by 17.8% within the U.S. year-over-year, for the month of September.

Final September, X had round 238 million each day lively customers, which seemingly implies that X was serving round 439 million month-to-month actives, based mostly on common DAU to MAU variation throughout social apps. That will imply that, based mostly on SimilarWeb’s indicators, X would presently be seeing round 378 million month-to-month lively customers, not 500 million, as X claims.

Different third-party evaluation tells an analogous story. Knowledge from Apptopia means that X presently has round 223 million month-to-month actives, and 121 million each day customers, with the app seeing a drastic decline in each utilization and downloads because the rebrand to X in July.

However on the identical time, neither SimilarWeb nor Apptopia can entry to the total information insights, with solely X having full oversight. Although their figures are typically indicative, which appears to recommend that X most likely doesn’t have 500 million month-to-month customers at this stage.

However we don’t know, as a result of X is now a non-public firm, and as such, it’s not beholden to SEC guidelines round disclosure. So we solely have X’s phrase, and X says it’s 500 million.

Make of that what you’ll.

When it comes to common time spent within the app per day, X itself has reported that it presently has 253 million each day actives, which might imply that if customers are spending a cumulative 7.8 billion minutes per day within the app, as reported by Yaccarino, then the common time spent is definitely 30.8 minutes per person, not 32 minutes per day as Yaccarino claims.

If the common time spent per person is definitely 32 minutes per day, as X says, then that will imply that X is now serving 244 million each day actives, which might imply that it’s misplaced 7 million DAU since March.

And if that’s true, then these 1.5 million new account sign-ups that the app’s seeing should not sticking round, as a result of X ought to be including 45 million new customers each month at that charge.

But it surely’s dropping each day actives? Doesn’t look like an amazing indicator of success.

X additionally claims that every one of its main advert companions are coming again, however Ebiquity, which works with 70 of the world’s prime 100 spending manufacturers, claims that solely two of its purchasers have resumed X advert spend. X has additionally began promoting advert stock via Google Advertisements to fill slots, which would seem to recommend that if these manufacturers are returning, they’re spending quite a bit much less.

However once more, we don’t know, as a result of X is the one one with all the info, and the one technique of figuring out for positive how X goes will probably be its monetary efficiency. Which may even stay unclear, until Musk and Co. determine to report these figures.

And that may solely come when X is basically struggling, although it does appear considerably indicative of an issue when the banks that loaned Elon Musk $13 billion for his acquisition at the moment are anticipating a big loss, as they attempt to offload the debt.

Constancy, which itself owns a stake within the firm, has minimize X’s valuation by two-thirds, which suggests the platform would presently be value round $15 million, versus the $44 billion Musk paid for it.

So whereas X’s group is making an attempt to color a rosy image, each exterior evaluation suggests in any other case. And possibly they’re all mistaken, but it surely does look like there’s one thing not fairly on the nostril concerning the information being shared.

On different components, Yaccarino additionally says that every day, “150,000 new lengthy kind posts are revealed, receiving greater than 3 billion impressions.”

Lengthy-form content material is a big departure from what Twitter had been, which hasn’t actually appeared like an amazing match, however possibly there may be an viewers for it, based mostly on these figures. Although once more, the element is absent, with regard to what truly defines a long-form submit on this context (i.e. is that any submit that it’s important to faucet into to learn, or is it solely posts of a sure phrase rely?).

Yaccarino additionally says that the common X Premium subscriber spends thrice longer on the platform than a non-subscriber. Which is zero shock in any respect, however that will additionally imply that this phase could be skewing the common time spent numbers, on mixture.

When it comes to coming options, Yaccarino has mentioned that full-screen, vertical video advertisements will quickly be displayed inside X’s new immersive playback mode, which is whenever you faucet via on a video and scroll as much as maintain seeing extra. Yaccarino says that 100 million folks now view video content material inside this devoted feed day by day, with Gen Z being essentially the most lively shoppers of this course of.

Lastly, Yaccarino says that its in-stream funds course of is in improvement, with X being granted cash transmitter licenses in a number of U.S. states. As we’ve reported, X has been granted funds licenses in some states, but it surely nonetheless has an extended method to go in gaining full approval on this entrance.

I don’t know, it feels nearly too skeptical to query each one in every of X’s claims, however once more, that is based mostly on exterior evaluation and reporting, at a broad scale, which contradicts Yaccarino’s varied notes. Possibly they’re all mistaken, possibly X is definitely doing superior, and possibly Threads, which is now as much as 100 million customers, is having no impression in any respect on X utilization.

However that appears most unlikely, when each different mode of study and perception is reporting the identical.

We’ll discover out, as X continues on its path.