Whereas X’s proprietor and CEO repeatedly promote claims of surging reputation, and “document excessive” utilization of the app, it appears that evidently the transition to X has not been a monetary winner for the platform, and should still spell the top for Elon Musk’s social media experiment.

Over the weekend, The New York Instances revealed a brand new overview of X CEO Linda Yaccarino’s difficult process in successful advertisers again on the app. And in amongst varied claims in regards to the issue in balancing Musk’s free speech strategy with assuaging advertiser considerations, it included this notice:

“Inner paperwork obtained by The New York Instances present that, within the second quarter of this yr, X earned $114 million in income in america, a 25 p.c decline from the primary quarter and a 53 p.c decline from the earlier yr. The corporate goals to achieve $190 million in U.S. income through the third quarter, bolstered by promoting related to the Olympics, soccer and political campaigns, the paperwork mentioned — however that concentrate on would nonetheless set the corporate’s quarterly earnings at 25 p.c lower than they had been final yr.”

To place this in context, in 2022, the ultimate yr earlier than Elon took over on the app, Twitter generated $4.4 billion in income, predominantly by means of promoting. In 2023, Musk’s first yr on the firm, that declined to round $3.4 billion, with advert income dropping considerably.

Now X additionally, after all, has lowered its overheads considerably, by culling round 80% of workers, so X’s revenue margins at the moment are a lot better in consequence. However on the identical time, Musk additionally saddled X with an enormous debt burden on account of taking out loans to buy the app for $44 billion. So whereas X has lowered workers prices, it’s additionally added round $1.2 billion in annual prices for debt servicing.

So ultimately, X remains to be in pretty precarious territory, when it comes to profitability.

So what does that imply when it comes to these new figures on its U.S. income?

Traditionally, Twitter/X has been reliant on U.S. customers for its income, with its U.S. revenue making up round 50% of its total consumption. It’s not clear if that is nonetheless the case at X, however it’s it, that might recommend that X introduced in round $230 million in whole income in Q2 this yr.

As NYT notes, that was a decline of 25% from Q1, so let’s say that X introduced in $287 million in whole income in Q1. That’s $517 million for the primary half of 2024.

Now, this can be promoting income alone, with out factoring in subscriptions and information gross sales, and so forth. However these are minor components. X Premium nonetheless has solely round one million subscribers, and at a mean of $8 monthly/per profile, that might equate to a further $48 million for the primary six months of the yr.

So cumulatively, X seems prefer it’s on observe to herald, at most, round $600 million in H1. And if that holds, X could also be taking a look at an revenue of round $1.2 billion for the yr.

X is hoping, as NYT notes, to spice up that with Olympics tie-in campaigns and alternatives, however even with an enormous push, it looks as if X could be struggling to achieve even 50% of its 2023 revenue ($3.4b). Which might be an enormous decline, and once more, that’ll barely cowl X’s debt servicing prices, not to mention the rest.

So whereas Elon Musk is eager to tout his dedication to free speech, for which might go thus far as shedding cash for what he believes in, that will additionally lengthen to shedding the whole enterprise, if it could possibly’t acquire traction with advertisers, and/or enhance subscription take-up.

In fact, one other component in play is xAI, and the necessity to gasoline that mission with X information. xAI just lately closed a $6 billion funding spherical, whereas Musk has additionally instructed that Tesla might make investments as much as $5 billion into xAI to boost its capability.

May Elon and Co. justify cross-investment into X as part of the broader xAI mission? That, doubtlessly, might give them one other $11 billion to put money into X/xAI extra broadly, although it’s unclear if or how they might have the ability to use xAI funding to straight prop-up the X platform.

And that might even be a short-term resolution, not an avenue to sustainability for the app.

However possibly, Elon is so assured that X will finally grow to be a cash making machine, by some means, that he might justify the short-term funding in an effort to maintain each tasks transferring.

xAI wants X enter to refine its fashions and providing. Possibly, that’s one other technique to funnel cash into X.

There’s doubtless a way round this, and if the world’s richest man actually desires to maintain X going, he can discover a method. However it does appear to more and more be a shedding guess, and one that can proceed to suck up prices, except Musk and Co. can persuade advertisers to return again.

Or it wants everybody to pay for the app.

May Elon look to lock X to all non-paying customers? Would that work? May Grok get so good that extra folks pays to make use of it?

It’s unclear what the pathway to profitability is, however based mostly on these numbers no less than, X remains to be removed from it at this stage.