With the corporate set to simply accept Musk’s revised, revisited, and re-issued Twitter takeover provide, many are actually pondering what this implies for the app, and what Elon has in retailer for the platform as Tweeter-in-chief.

And naturally, no one is aware of precisely what Musk’s pondering.

At one time, Musk did appear to have a reasonably definitive plan, which he’d pitched to potential funding companions, which, in his estimates, would take the app from the 238 million day by day actives it has proper now, to 931 million by 2028.

The element on the ‘how’ precisely was fairly skinny, however Elon appeared keen and able to take the app to new heights, utilizing a mix of subscriptions, verification and revised moderation to facilitate extra engagement, and reinvigorate the app.

However is that doable? Might anybody, even the person who’s conquered reusable rockets and electrical vehicles, actually remodel Twitter into one of the vital related communication platforms on the earth?

The chances of this taking place usually are not nice, however right here’s what we find out about Elon’s plans, based mostly on his previous communications and notes.

Eradicate the bots

Musk has loudly and repeatedly criticized Twitter for the quantity of bots on the platform, an issue which he initially vowed to resolve – ‘or die making an attempt’. Since then, he’s sought to make use of Twitter’s bot numbers as a way to exit his takeover deal – however now, it looks as if Twitter’s bot battling efforts are about to fall squarely into his lap.

So how does Musk deal with this? How can Elon remove bots within the app, with out additionally damaging the enterprise, given the degrees of bot exercise that he expects to seek out (Musk’s crew estimates that upwards of 27% of the platform’s present customers are bots)?

Based mostly on his textual content message exchanges, which have been not too long ago printed as a part of the trial discovery course of, lowering the platform’s reliance on adverts is essential.

As per Musk:

“Drastic motion is required. That is laborious to do as a public firm, as purging pretend customers will make the numbers look horrible, so restructuring needs to be finished as a personal firm.”

So Musk will possible be seeking to take Twitter personal, a minimum of within the brief time period, which, probably, would imply no extra Twitter adverts.

That will additionally cut back the strain on Musk to stick to any common requirements round content material moderation, as with no advert companions to cater to, the platform would not should be involved about problematic advert placements.

So, cool – Twitter goes personal, no extra adverts, free speech for all. All good, proper?

That appears to be what Elon’s pondering, however how he then re-builds Twitter right into a revenue-positive enterprise – Musk additionally advised potential traders that he would look to 5x Twitter’s income by 2028 – just isn’t so clear.

No adverts signifies that 90% of Twitter’s present earnings is gone, straight up. And whereas Musk has additionally famous that he would then re-introduce adverts at a later stage, the potential toxicity of a much less moderated, extra free-speech targeted Twitter doesn’t precisely sound just like the gold mine Musk appears to imagine it may very well be.

Take it from each right-wing aligned, anti-censorship social platform that’s been launched and failed over the previous 4 years – whereas folks would possibly say that they need free speech, once they have it, they really don’t.

There’s a motive why each platform places a lot effort, and funding, into content material moderation, and it’s to not management speech. I believe Musk goes to seek out this out in a short time, together with his now personal Twitter platform being challenged with a variety of content material moderation questions as customers search to problem the platform’s new ethos.

Musk’s place on censorship?

That signifies that a whole lot of extremely controversial, anti-Semitic, hate speech, which isn’t towards the legislation, however is at present towards most platform insurance policies, might quickly be allowed within the app.

Will customers want that? Certain, there’s a whole lot of noise about such, however I believe, in actuality, it gained’t be as interesting as folks suppose.

Open Sourced Algorithms

An alternative choice that Musk has floated is open-sourcing Twitter’s algorithms and programs, in order that customers have extra management over what they see within the app.

This appears to have stemmed from Musk’s authentic discussions in regards to the app with former Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey, who believes that Twitter needs to be reworked into an open-source protocol – extra of a platform to host dialogue, but additionally inherently distant from what’s truly mentioned within the app.

Musk explored a number of variations of this idea, together with probably charging customers in crypto (Dogecoin particularly) to tweet, however he finally got here to the conclusion that it’s not viable at scale.

However open-sourced algorithms is one other factor altogether, and Musk appears to be eager to discover this as a possible choice to remove potential bias or manipulation within the app.

In Musk’s view, customers ought to have a greater understanding of what any algorithm amplifies, or demotes, within the Twitter feed, which may very well be achieved, theoretically, by giving them extra alternative about which model of the algorithm is utilized to their expertise.

Twitter’s truly been exploring this concept for years, by way of its bluesky challenge, which goals to construct a brand new course of that may enable customers to see precisely what’s, and isn’t, influenced by any algorithm they may select to have on their Twitter expertise.

So for those who wished extra political content material, you might select a particular algorithm for that, or you may want much less – or you might use any variety of different algorithmic amplifiers to mainly select your personal Twitter expertise.

The purpose is that customers would have transparency, and freedom to regulate their expertise, versus the opaque algorithms at present in place in social apps, which amplify sure discussions and bury others, based mostly on some unknowable logic that’s locked inside their inner servers.

Which makes some sense, however whether or not that’s workable additionally stays to be seen. Twitter’s been creating bluesky since 2019, and never a heap has come of it, however possibly, underneath Elon, it’ll get extra focus, which might remodel the way in which we expertise Twitter fully.

Would that be a optimistic change? Who is aware of, however it might imply that these extra tolerant of sturdy, probably offensive exchanges, might nonetheless have interaction in such within the app, whereas those that don’t need to be uncovered to identical might keep away from it.

The larger query to me right here is how that form of fracturing will affect the Twitter expertise. Twitter has all the time been in regards to the international city sq. method, the place everybody can participate within the dialog – however the extra these discussions are siloed away, the much less engaging, I’d counsel, it’ll be.

Twitter lets everybody have their say, typically in public, and with out that, you’re probably an entire completely different app.

Possibly that’s an excellent factor, however I may see how its engagement charges might drop because of this, because it turns into extra like a messenger group chat amongst these you recognize – and sure, those that share the identical beliefs.

Subscription Twitter

It is a extra complicated one, as Musk has gone backwards and forwards on how he thinks this would possibly work.

As famous, in Musk’s early conversations earlier than launching his takeover bid for the app, he had floated the potential of a form of ‘fee per tweet mannequin’, with the concept being that customers would pay a tiny value for each tweet or retweet they make. That will make it harder for spammers and scammers to mass tweet within the app, as a result of they’d need to pay to take action – however since then, Musk appears to have cooled on this idea.

However Musk has additionally talked about subscriptions, and charging enterprise customers, particularly, to make use of the app.

Twitter, after all, already has a subscription service, in Twitter Blue, which solely a tiny fraction of its customers at present pay for. However Musk has additionally mapped out an alternate mannequin for Blue, which he believes might encourage extra folks to pay up.

Again in April, Musk recommended reducing the value of Blue to $2 per thirty days, and giving each paying subscriber a blue checkmark. That will then align together with his bot-battling plan, by verifying all the true people within the app, whereas additionally giving Twitter a much bigger various income stream – which it’ll want because it seeks to interchange its misplaced advert {dollars}.

Although as famous by Protocol:

“The issue: Beneath this plan, Twitter would truly make much less cash per consumer than it at present does. The corporate doesn’t get away ARPU in its quarterly outcomes, however a little bit of back-of-the-envelope math means that the common advert income for every of the corporate’s 217 million monetizable day by day lively customers was round $6.50 in This fall 2021, which involves $2.17 per thirty days.”

So even when each single consumer signed on to this new, cheaper Twitter Blue possibility, with the lure of a prestigious checkmark, it nonetheless wouldn’t exchange the advert {dollars} misplaced.

And there’s no method that every one of these would pay – to not point out the thousands and thousands of pretend profiles that may’t be included in any such calculations.

Musk has since modified his tune on this too, noting in Might that:

So possibly Musk will simply look to cost enterprise customers, who’ve signed up for Skilled Accounts within the app. I’m not so certain companies will probably be eager to pay, particularly if the tone of the app declines underneath Musk’s new free speech method.

Both method, this does appear to be one other aspect that Musk will discover as he seeks to reboot the platform.

These are the primary modifications that it looks as if Musk will probably be seeking to make when (if) he takes over on the app, with additional tweaks and revisions alongside the way in which that can possible remodel the tweet expertise in numerous methods.

Musk might additionally look to vary the title (to ‘X’ as a part of his plan for an ‘all the things app’) whereas he can also reinstate former President Trump, amongst different coverage updates.

It’s a really high-risk, very public problem for Elon, and it’ll be attention-grabbing to see if he can dwell as much as his billing as the person who makes inconceivable issues occur.

As a result of Twitter remodeling itself into a major challenger within the social media area does appear inconceivable, with Fb, TikTok and Instagram all at present seeing utilization ranges greater than 4x Twitter’s mDAU charges.

We’ll have to attend and see, however Mr. Musk’s wild experience seems set to get even bumpier over the approaching months.