Truthfully, it should be exhausting for Elon to travel so usually, however I additionally suppose that we’re now beginning to get a greater understanding of the method right here, the tactic behind the perceived insanity of his strategy. That that is, really, all a part of a plan, regardless of how misguided that plan could appear.

In a TED Speak again in 2014, Elon Musk defined how he approaches issues, and why he’s been so profitable at discovering different options, which many have ignored.

As defined by Musk:

“Effectively, I do suppose there’s an excellent framework for pondering. It’s physics. You realize, the type of first ideas reasoning. What I imply by that’s, boil issues all the way down to their elementary truths and motive up from there, versus reasoning by analogy. By means of most of our life, we get via life by reasoning by analogy, which basically means copying what different folks do with slight variations.”

The basic idea right here is that we’re usually too reliant on what’s already occurred, what’s been performed, as a marker of what’s going to come subsequent, which might blind us to the alternatives which might be proper in entrance of us, as a result of we predict that we already know the result.

While you view issues from this angle, the chaos that Musk has overseen up to now at Twitter makes somewhat extra sense. Slightly than take heed to the various commentators which have seen social platforms attempt issues like subscriptions up to now, and fail, and even take the previous historical past of social platforms into consideration, Musk has approached issues with a extra clean slate view.

‘What would occur if we did cost for a blue checkmark?’

In fact, I, like nearly all people else, suppose that this proposal received’t work, based mostly on precedents like Twitter Blue, or Fb’s previous explorations of charging for the app. However Elon Musk doesn’t take a look at issues the identical approach, and that’s how he’s solved a number of the largest technological issues at his different corporations.

And when you think about this, the entire Elon persona, and strategy, makes extra sense.

Elon himself has basically flagged this in the present day, noting that:

Giving everybody blue checkmarks, with no ID verification, has already led to numerous instances of misinformation and deception, inside hours of the choice being launched – which, in equity, Twitter has snuffed out fairly fast. However this looks like solely the beginning, as there’ll be many, many ways in which scammers will look to make use of this as a way to dupe folks, whereas the quantity of customers which might be more likely to pay for a blue tick might be not sufficient to even make it definitely worth the effort.

However once more, I’m viewing this with historical past as my information – I’m it based mostly years of analyzing social networks, and the teachings that the platforms have discovered up to now, which guides my view of what I count on to be the result.

That’s not how Elon Musk works, and the extra we see of his strategy, the extra that is coming into perspective, doubtlessly flagging what we are able to count on.

One other facet to contemplate in Elon’s Twitter strategy is promotion, and his distinctive strategy to getting consideration.

It’s notable that Tesla, Elon’s primary firm, doesn’t pay for promoting, and by no means has, and a giant a part of the rationale why it doesn’t is as a result of having Elon Musk as its entrance man is definitely simply as worthwhile as paying for advertisements

As a result of he loves consideration, and he is aware of the right way to get it – which, in the long run, implies that he doesn’t have to pay for it, as a result of the media involves him.

In the identical vein, Elon is aware of that he can generate big curiosity and a focus just by tweeting loopy issues. For instance, based mostly on inside information (which Musk shared this week), Twitter engagement is definitely on the up since he took over on the app.

Watching this unfold, I can now see that this might all, doubtlessly, be part of his larger plan, which implies that Musk will hold tweeting out his typical outlandish, attention-grabbing stuff, then let every remark percolate among the many media, successfully selling Twitter within the course of.

Then he’ll simply abandon the dumbest ideas, as he says, shrugging them off as random late-night ideas.

On the identical time, Musk will proceed to carry conferences like in the present day’s chat with advert companions, the place he’ll stroll again his most galling feedback. Inside this, he’s successfully saying ‘yeah, I say a variety of random stuff, which is definitely actually good for the platform’s numbers, however in actuality, I’m not going all-in on excessive hate speech, and so forth.’

That steadiness will get tough when his followers begin calling on him to enact a extra free speech strategy, in step with his public statements. However possibly, that is the method, balancing numerous spinning plates by working to appease as many sides as he can.

Random class warfare tweets, then calming advert exec conferences. Supporting ‘free speech’, then assembly with the Chinese language Authorities to deal with their issues.

On steadiness, this does nonetheless appear to be an untenable establishment. However what we’re seeing is just like Trump’s strategy to the app, flooding the zone along with his ‘off the dome’ feedback, whereas working on the different finish to construct the enterprise.

And once more, as Musk himself notes, a few of these concepts received’t work. However he’ll attempt them anyway – as a result of why not?

Positive, individuals are gonna be aggravated about his $8 monthly ‘verification’ proposal. But when they don’t prefer it, they don’t pay, then Twitter scales it again at a later date – or much more possible, reverts again to the unique system as soon as it’s clear that not sufficient customers pays (nonetheless betting on this being the probably end result).

Then what occurs? Twitter utilization reverts to regular, with possibly a number of extra folks paying for subscriptions. Then Twitter will launch another subscription providing, which is possibly barely higher, possibly worse. Some folks pays, others received’t, and we’ll all debate the logic of Elon’s newest loopy transfer, successfully maintaining Twitter and Musk within the information.

And regardless of this being a messy course of, and all out in public, it could effectively assist to maximise Twitter promotion, and hold extra folks coming to the app to hitch within the chaos, as Musk and Co. proceed to check out new concepts.

Mainly actually, the dangers are could not that prime – as long as Musk doesn’t reduce off customers wholesale or utterly tank the attain of each tweet from each non-paying person (which Musk has mentioned, and will nonetheless occur), or open the floodgates to every kind of hate speech that would have dramatic impacts on the app.

Which he has urged he’ll do. However he hasn’t performed it but.

Elon additionally is aware of that advertisers will come if utilization improve, and whereas the related model dangers might nonetheless be vital, it’s beginning to grow to be somewhat clearer that there’s a distance is between what Elon Musk says and what Elon Musk does in actuality.

And in a 12 months’s time, Twitter will most likely look very very like what it does proper now. Whether or not it makes more cash, although, is the important thing question for Elon’s new crew.