It looks as if X (previously Twitter) could possibly be dealing with a ban in Brazil, after Elon Musk’s newest choice to defy a court docket order to dam “sure well-liked accounts in Brazil”.

On Saturday, X shared this overview of the scenario, and the actions that it was being primarily pressured to take in consequence:

Elon Musk was then straight questioned about this, in relation to a different put up that he’s shared concerning the request, and in response, he introduced that X would truly not be adhering to this request, and that all restrictions can be lifted.

And whereas I get that unpredictability is a part of the Elon Musk expertise, the announcement is especially inconsistent along with his strategy.

For instance, listed below are two exchanges on X, posted nearly a 12 months aside:

So on the left, now we have Elon being challenged over complying with an order from the Turkish Authorities to censor sure customers within the lead-up to the native election. As Musk notes, the selection that X (Twitter) had right here was to stick to the request, or danger having X shut down fully within the area. As such, they’d no selection however to conform.

On the proper, now we have this weekend’s instance of Musk backflipping on this actual stance, with Elon noting that by rejecting a Brazilian Authorities request for comparable censorship, X could also be lower off completely within the area. However he’s prepared to take that danger on this occasion.

So which is it? Is X going to face on its rules and push again towards authorities censorship, even on the danger of being shut down in mentioned area, or does X want to stick to the legislation of the land, as Musk has repeatedly famous on such requests?

That’s the stance that Musk has underlined in comparable circumstances in each India and Germany, the place X has additionally honored authorities requests for censorship.

Musk has maintained this because the starting of his tenure on the app, that X, underneath his management, will adhere to native legal guidelines, and that the individuals in every area will determine with their votes whether or not that’s truthful or not.

And that is smart. Twitter’s confronted many authorized challenges over time in relation to authorities requests for censorship, and Elon is aware of that difficult every of those would pose a giant danger to X’s enterprise, no matter private stances.

But, this time, he has determined to take a stand, regardless of these dangers.

So why now, why Brazil?

Effectively, it’s not as a result of Brazil has no X customers.

Brazil, reportedly, has the sixth highest quantity of lively customers of the app, with 21 million Brazilians utilizing X. India is the third largest marketplace for the corporate, with 30 million native customers, Turkey has round 23 million X customers, whereas Germany has round 15 million actives.  

So it’s not like it is a calculated danger, and Elon’s choosing his battles based mostly on relative affect.

So why else would Elon be prepared to tackle Brazilian authorities, however not these in different areas?

May or not it’s as a result of Elon’s different enterprise, Tesla, doesn’t have as a lot publicity in Brazil?

Tesla is but to make a lot of a dent within the South American market, although it’s closely reliant, and/or searching for to develop its footprint, in every of those different nations.

Tesla is working with the Indian Authorities on plans to construct a brand new manufacturing facility within the nation, as a part of its broader effort to faucet into the Indian market, whereas Musk has additionally mentioned constructing a Tesla manufacturing facility in Turkey as properly, through talks with Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan. Telsa additionally already has a manufacturing facility in Berlin, and perhaps, that battle is what’s empowering Musk to make a stand on this case, with out worry of the Brazilian Authorities retaliating with sanctions that would damage his key money-making enterprise.

That appears to be probably the most logical consideration, as a result of in any other case it is senseless why Elon has determined to face as much as Brazilian authorities on this occasion, whereas bowing to comparable calls for each different time.

Or perhaps it’s the start of a brand new period, the place Elon will stand as much as authoritarian regimes, in protection of his much-touted free speech ethos.

However I doubt it.

It’s a skeptical view, I do know, however it’s simply so inconsistent on the face of it, that it looks as if there should be another logic that we don’t see on this case.

Both means, X could possibly be banned from Brazil on account of Elon Musk’s newest stance, with Brazilian authorities now scrambling to enact rules to punish Musk for his stance.

Will this be the brand new norm, with Musk now prepared to take a stand towards authorities requests, on the danger of the complete enterprise?

We’ll see what comes subsequent, however I stay uncertain that Elon will maintain agency in nations the place his different companies could possibly be impacted.